Modeling and Analysis of Human Error in Naval Aviation Maintenance Mishaps

This study investigates human error associated with 599 Naval Aviation maintenance-related mishaps (MRMs) in Fiscal Years 90-99. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System Maintenance Extension (HFACS-ME) taxonomy was utilized to classify contributory human errors within a robust theoretical framework. Variable Poisson process models are developed to predict MRMs and relationships between the error dimensions are investigated. The results of this study show that the HFACS-ME taxonomy provides an adequate framework for the classification of MRM causal factors; that variable Poisson process models are suitable for predicting future mishaps, and that there are significant relationships between selected causal dimensions; sufficient to warrant further investigation. These results provide information regarding the predicted impact of MRMs on future operational readiness and mission capability. Through being aware of these aspects, decision-makers are armed with the knowledge to make better decisions concerning the preservation and allocation of the resources at their disposal.Naval Postgraduate School Monterey CA Dept of Operations Research is the author of 'Modeling and Analysis of Human Error in Naval Aviation Maintenance Mishaps', published 2000 under ISBN 9781423534976 and ISBN 1423534972.