How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps? : A Reprint from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly

Real-time estimates of output gaps & trends are important tools for macroeconomic analysis. But how accurate are estimates of real-time gaps & trends? This article discusses the problem of estimating gaps & trends in real time & constructs measures of their precision. The analysis is based on band-pass filtering methods augmented with univariate forecasts. The empirical analysis suggests that there is considerable uncertainty associated with real-time estimates of trends & gaps. Charts & tables.Watson, Mark M. is the author of 'How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps? : A Reprint from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly', published 2007 under ISBN 9781422317365 and ISBN 1422317366.