Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles

Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles Our understanding of the nature of economic cycles and their financial impact has deepened considerably since World War II and our ability to forecast key economic turning points has been greatly enhanced through the creation and application of more sophisticated methodologies. Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles reflects this steady progress, chronicling the development of cyclical theory and the tools used to asses, track, and predict this volatility. More than a history of emerging and competing ideas, however, this vital handbook gives investors, traders, business executives, bankers, policymakers, and economists policymakers, and economists the fundamental information they need to determine the nature and causes of business cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other instability, and presents the full range of applied techniques to enable them to more accurately measure, monitor, and forecast these dramatic fluctuations. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, as well as the alternative concepts developed by many of the century's most influential thinkers. The book shows the basic similarities and differences between the business and growth cycle, and explains five types of economic cycles-the agricultural, inventory, fixed-investment, building, and Kondratieff cycles-including their essential features and critical reception among economists. The book goes on to examine the variety of theories that have evolved to explain the causes of instability in market-driven economies. Here, coverage ranges from discussion of simple unicausal theories, through the powerful impact of more complex Keynesian concepts, to new classical macroeconomics, which takes its cue from earlier economic theory. With this greater understanding of the forces acting on the economy, readers are prepared for the book's comprehensive treatment of statistical techniques used to measure various trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, including the steps involved in applying a given method as well as its advantages and limitations. Readers learn how to put together their own composite indicators, which can help them evaluate the complex interactions that drive instability and more accurately forecast turning points in a business cycle. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles includes a thorough review of America's economic history over the past century. This detailed look at cycles of different origins and duration highlights important lessons and underscores the need for readers to have a strong knowledge of economic history-in addition to a firm grasp of forecasting techniques-if they are to become adept at pinpointing stages of economic instability. No forecasting system is infallible. But, armed with the theoretical, historical, and applied information provided in Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, practitioners in all areas of business and finance can develop the skills and savvy to more consistently anticipate key fluctuations and profit from the knowledge.Niemira, Michael P. is the author of 'Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles' with ISBN 9780471845447 and ISBN 0471845442.