Fire Regimes and Climatic Indicators : Relationships in the United States

Relationships between annual fire data and climate data from 1984- 1997 were examined for ten states across the U.S. The data used included annual fire data from the U.S. Forest Service and monthly precipitation and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Correlation tests were performed to find variables that showed statistical significant at the alpha = 0.05 level. All states tested showed statistically significant correlations between multiple fire and climate data sets. The exact data sets showing high levels of correlation varied from state to state. Arizona had a high positive correlation between winter precipitation and PDSI values and fire activity for fires of medium size over the time period studied. All other states showed negative correlations between various precipitation or PDSI values and fire activity. In many cases, more PDSI values showed high correlations to fire activity than precipitation values. It was found that, in general, the most extreme annual drought conditions were highly correlated with fire activity. Also, the largest fires (Classes F and G) were linked to precipitation or the Palmer index in fewer states than fires of medium sizes.Air Force Inst of Tech Wright-Patterson AFB OH is the author of 'Fire Regimes and Climatic Indicators : Relationships in the United States', published 2001 under ISBN 9781423524847 and ISBN 1423524845.