Analysis and Forecasting of Air Force Operating and Support Cost for Rotary Aircraft

This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Air Force Helicopters. Specifically, this research evaluates three separate forecasting techniques to predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Air Force. It starts by empirically analyzing the Operating and Support cost by CAIG categories for each helicopter. For forecasting purposes, the actual CPFH figures were compiled from FY96 to FY03 for a total of eight MAJCOMs flying the MH-53J/M, the HH-60G, or the UH-1N helicopters. The research explores the use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear method. These forecasting techniques were used to forecast for FY02 in evaluating the best methodology to forecast the CPFH for FYO4. By comparing both the budgeted and forecasted figures for FY00 to FY02 to the actual CPFH figures in the same years, the forecasting methods were able to more accurately predict the actual CPFH for all of the MAJCOMs that achieved a budget variance of less than 20 percent. It was discovered that Holt's linear method was the best forecasting method for 75 percent of the time series analyzed since they contained positive trends. Finally, these techniques were employed to provide the best possible forecast of the CPFH for FY04. (35 tables, 30 figures, 22 refs.)Air Force Inst of Tech Wright-Patterson AFB OH School of Engineering and Management is the author of 'Analysis and Forecasting of Air Force Operating and Support Cost for Rotary Aircraft', published 2004 under ISBN 9781423516644 and ISBN 1423516648.